Each cycle typically goes through three phases:
1) Bull run after the halving (green)
A supply shock initially causes the price to climb slowly. As the cycle progresses, momentum builds (media attention, mass psychology, etc.) until the so-called cycle top is reached.
2) Bear market after overheating (blow-off top) (red)
Following the preceding exponential price surge, the market experiences a sharp decline (profit-taking, liquidations, etc.). Historically, corrections of over –80% have been common.
3) Reaccumulation/recovery before the halving (orange)
After the heavy sell-off, Bitcoin has so far found its bottom roughly 400 days later. From there, a gradual recovery begins until the next halving triggers the following cycle.
The chart presented visually separates the four halving cycles so far, with the halvings themselves marked by vertical lines. We are currently in the fourth halving cycle (2024–2028), which so far continues to show strong similarities to previous cycles.
These cycles do not repeat exactly, but the underlying market behavior — driven by scarcity, speculation, and emotion — remains consistent. Price action is influenced not only by supply and demand but also by market psychology, macro trends, and adoption rates.
"The trend is your friend until it ends"
We can clearly observe that each Bitcoin cycle is stretching in duration when measured from the bear market low to the bull market peak. The red trendline in the chart highlights this steady lengthening pattern.
If we combine this oberservation with the Bitcoin Power Law we get...
$190k – $250k, Sep–Nov 2025
Another key element in the chart is the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). Here we see a remarkably consistent pattern:
Whenever the RSI, during a bull run, touches or breaks through the falling resistance line (dark gray) from above, a cycle top followed shortly after — as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
This RSI trend thus provides a valuable early warning signal for identifying overheated phases and potential turning points ahead of time.
Conclusion:
The chart combines the long-term perspective of the logarithmic growth curve (Bitcoin Power Law) with Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. By integrating halvings (timing), cyclical phases, and RSI signals, it becomes a macro-analysis tool that helps investors maintain long-term orientation — far removed from short-term market noise.
(The curves shown in the chart are calculated logarithmically and not simply “drawn by hand” onto the chart.)
http://dlvr.it/TMP4NQ