Timeframe: H4 (4-hour)
Market Bias: Bullish Continuation
Risk Profile: Medium-to-Low Frequency, High Conviction
Trade Style: Buy-the-Dip, Scale-out Strategy
🧠 Macro & Technical Outlook
Gold is currently maintaining a bullish higher-high, higher-low structure on the H4 chart, reflecting continued strength from macro drivers including inflation hedging, softening USD, and a shift toward safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
The market has recently completed a local impulse wave and is entering a healthy retracement phase. This sets up a textbook swing opportunity, where pullbacks to key Fibonacci levels can be capitalised for the next bullish leg up.
🔍 H4 Trading Plan Summary
✅ Phase 1: Buy on Pullback to 3360
Entry Zone: 3360 (H4 support and key retracement level)
Reasoning:
Confluence of dynamic support and 50–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone of the previous H4 swing
Former resistance turned support (RBS zone)
Volume tapering and RSI cooling off — signalling a healthy setup for bullish continuation
Entry Trigger:
Bullish engulfing or pin bar candle on H4
Optional confirmation: RSI > 40 after bounce, MACD crossover
Stop Loss: Below 3340 (beneath structural support)
🎯 Target 1: 3383
Why:
Local resistance zone from previous H4 rejection wick
Close to psychological level and good zone for first partial profit
Action:
Secure 25% profits
Move SL to breakeven or +10 pips for risk-free continuation
Wait for next retracement
✅ Phase 2: Wait for Pullback After 3383
Retracement Zone: Estimated dip to 3370–3375 (higher low area)
Entry Trigger:
Confirmation of strong bounce at this level with tight consolidation and breakout on smaller timeframes (M30/H1)
🎯 Target 2: 3430
Why:
Strong historical resistance from early July
Mid-level of long-term range (3330–3480)
Often serves as decision point between accumulation or breakout
Action:
Secure additional 40–50% profits
Trail SL below the most recent higher low (~3390)
✅ Phase 3: Final Position Hold Toward 3475
Retracement Zone: Likely dip to 3410–3420 after 3430 is reached
Final Entry (Optional): Only if momentum is strong and structure holds
Target 3: 3475
Why:
Multi-month resistance and projected upside target from recent breakout
Round number magnet + liquidity zone for larger institutional exits
Action:
Close remaining 25–30% of the position
Reassess for breakout or reversal at 3475
⚠️ Risk Management Plan
Max exposure: 1.5–2% of account
Stop losses fixed — no averaging down
Use position sizing to handle swing duration volatility
Scale-in only with structure confirmation
🔁 Summary Table
Phase Buy Level Target SL Action
Phase 1 3360 3383 3340 Partial TP, BE SL
Phase 2 3370–3375 3430 3355–3365 Add size, secure more
Phase 3 3410–3420 3475 3390 Final TP, full exit
📊 Indicators to Watch (H4)
RSI: Look for 40–60 zone bounce and push toward 70
MACD: Cross above signal line confirms momentum
Volume: Increased buy-side volume at 3360–3375 confirms entry strength
🧭 Fundamental Considerations
Watch DXY: Weakness in Dollar continues to support Gold’s uptrend
FOMC or Jobs Data Ahead?: Any surprise comments from Fed could introduce volatility
Global Headlines: Risk-off flows (e.g., China/US tensions, war news) are bullish for Gold
http://dlvr.it/TMGbp4